Project Description:
The study was prepared by PMC Research Center with the professors of China’s University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) and in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia and the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China.
This report seeks to analyze the potential benefits and challenges of a potential China-Georgia free trade agreement (CGFTA). It involves the study of the economic situation between the two countries, in particular, through analyzing foreign economic policies and bilateral economic and trade relations, investigating issues related to trade in goods, trade in services and investments. Thereafter, solid scientific suggestions will be given to guide the potential free trade agreement negotiations.
The objectives of the study are as follows:
The effects of trade policy changes are analyzed based on partial-equilibrium (PE) and general equilibrium (GE) models. The GE approach estimates long-term effects, while the PE model captures short and medium term effects.
The study suggested that a free trade agreement between Georgia and China has great potential. Georgia’s export to China would, the study foresees, increase by 9% approximately, in the short-term period including significant growth of wine exports (28.5%) and non-alcoholic drinks (36.7%). On the other hand, imports from China would increase by 1.7%. The study is of great importance as further negotiations between the two countries about the proposed agreement will be based on its results.
The comparative analysis of Georgia’s foreign trade and trade with China shows that a free trade agreement may increase export of goods and services in new directions as well. It would also provide numerous opportunities to increase the trade flow in services, in terms of transport and logistics, and tourism. Growth in Chinese investments, including in infrastructure projects that will facilitate an increase in Asia-Europe trade flow and in the medical and financial sectors, under the framework of the new policy of the Chinese government would be expected.
“In addition to increased investments, the free trade agreement will enhance investment attractiveness of Georgian general. Considering Georgia’s trade policy liberalization, it will not affect local producers and the growth of import. Taking into account all the effects, we can say that trade liberalization with China will contribute to the development of Georgia’s economy”, explain Lasha Chochua, one of the authors of the study.
On September 9, we presented the findings of the research entitled “Investment and Export Promotion via Diagonal Cumulation between Georgia, Türkiye, and the European Union” at a forum organized by the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia with the support of the USAID Economic Security Program, the EU, and GIZ.
We recently started working on a new project entitled “Communal Infrastructure for Environment and Tourism Improvement - Lot 2: Accompanying Measures,” aimed at improving the living conditions of people in four Georgian municipalities (Baghdati, Vani, Samtredia, and Kazbegi) through improving the supply of hygienically-sound drinking water and environmentally-safe sanitation infrastructure.
We recently completed a project entitled “Executive Roundtable (ERT) Session on Non-Profit Budgeting Process,” carried out by the USAID HICD Activity and implemented by the Kaizen, Tetra Tech company, aiming to facilitate collaboration, collective learning, and organizational development in the non-profit budgeting process with a cohort of selected organizations, including the Georgian Young Lawyers Association (GYLA), the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP), and the Georgian Association of Social Workers (GASW).
On September 19-23, the International Consortium on Governmental Financial Management (ICGFM) is hosting the 2022 International Conference at the University Club of Washington DC, offering the first opportunity in over two years for the global PFM community to gather in-person to network and connect with leading professionals and colleagues from across the world, in a unique and distinguished setting.
On July 28, PMCG supported a workshop organized by the EU and the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia as part of the project “Support to Environmental Protection and Fight Against Climate Change in Georgia.”
The beverage manufacturing sector, encompassing the production of fruit juices, mineral water, soft drinks, beer, and spirits, has high export potential and a strong presence of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). From 2017 to 2023, Georgia’s total beverage exports grew at a CAGR of 10%, reaching USD 463 million in 2023. Despite overall export growth, the share of exports to the EU declined significantly during this time, particularly for SMEs. Key challenges include limited access to quality raw materials, outdated machinery, a shortage of skilled labor, and logistical constraints, as well as difficulties in meeting EU standards and DCFTA regulations and limited access to financing for export operations.
Our latest monthly publication, Employment Tracker, offers insights into recent developments in Georgia’s labor market. In March 2025, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary saw a modest increase of 0.3% compared to the same period in 2024. In March 2025, the total number of vacancies posted on jobs.ge decreased by 18% YoY. The administration and management category contributed the most to the decline in vacancies from January to March 2025.
Georgia’s IT services sector has experienced rapid expansion, with tax revenues quadrupling between 2020 and 2023, employment increasing 5.4-fold, and turnover rising 13-fold. Government policies and incentives, such as the International Company Status and FDI Grant Program, have played a key role in attracting foreign investment and driving the sector’s development. Future growth will rely on strategic initiatives such as the successful implementation of GITA 2.0, enhanced IT procurement policies, and stronger collaboration with the private sector, while addressing key challenges like export capabilities and talent retention.
Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, maritime trade flows in the Black Sea were significantly reshaped. As the war continued, developments affecting the trade in the Black Sea changed, underscoring the importance of thoroughly analyzing how the region has adapted to such disruptions. This publication builds upon the previous edition, which was released shortly after the outbreak of the war. Now, three years later, our focus shifts to examining how trade dynamics, particularly maritime trade in the Black Sea region, have evolved during this period. Key insights include: Upon the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, port calls in Ukraine and Russia dropped sharply, while other Black Sea countries briefly benefited from redirected trade flows. By late 2023, port calls in Ukraine had gradually recovered, supported by new shipping routes through Romania and Bulgaria. However, serious threats to commercial shipping remained. Ukraine’s maritime exports and imports fell sharply in 2022, with a slow recovery in imports in 2023. In Russia, maritime imports declined, while exports initially increased in 2022, possibly due to sanctions being ineffective. However, as the sanctions intensified, exports also fell significantly the following year.
Our latest monthly publication, Employment Tracker, offers insights into recent developments in Georgia’s labor market. In February 2025, the annual growth in the number of salaried employees recorded its lowest rate since 2023. In February 2025, the total number of vacancies posted on jobs.ge decreased by 20% YoY. Between December 2024 and February 2025, the Sales and Procurement category saw the highest number of job postings.